KYIV, Ukraine (AP) \u2014 As a political novice making an unlikely run to be Ukraine\u2019s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowed to reach out to Russia-backed rebels in the east who were fighting Ukrainian forces and make strides toward resolving the conflict. The assurances contributed to his landslide victory in 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But after 2\u00bd years in office, Zelenskyy is watching his once-enormous support dissolve as Ukraine stands on what many fear is the verge of a Russian invasion that would not only take the rebel regions but possibly the rest of the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To make matters worse, the incumbent whom Zelenskyy defeated in 2019 has boldly returned to the country to face charges of treason and stir up opposition to him. Analysts, meanwhile, suggest that Moscow is seeking to bolster support among pro-Russia politicians in Ukraine and that the buildup of Russian forces near Ukraine\u2019s border is aimed partly at destabilizing the country\u2019s politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Britain\u2019s intelligence services claimed last month that Russia was seeking to overthrow Zelenskyy\u2019s government and replace him with the leader of a small party that opposes Ukraine\u2019s ambitions to join NATO and the European Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Zelenskyy tried to calm the political turbulence Sunday by downplaying the stepped-up warnings from the U.S. about the imminent possibility of a Russian invasion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWe understand all the risks,\u201d Zelenskyy said, adding that if anyone has any \u201cinformation regarding a 100% certain invasion, beginning on the 16th,\u201d they need to come forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The maneuverings and the dismay among ordinary Ukrainians present a significant challenge for a country where democracy has been shambolic for decades. In the past 20 years, Ukraine has endured two significant uprisings \u2014 one that forced the rerun of a fraud-ridden presidential election and the mass, bloody protests that drove the Kremlin-friendly president to flee the country in 2014. Fistfights have broken out in parliament. Political alliances often shift and parties transmute into new entities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe biggest risk for Ukraine and the biggest risk for the sovereignty of our state \u2026 is destabilization within our state,\u201d Zelenskyy said last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Ukrainians have little confidence that Zelenskyy can ensure that stability. According to a January poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, only 30% of the country\u2019s people want Zelenskyy to run for a second term and even fewer \u2014 23% \u2014 would vote for him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The continuing conflict in the rebel east and the prospect of a full-scale war aren\u2019t the only factors in his declining support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cZelenskyy promised to end the war and defeat corruption, but this did not happen,\u201d said Anatoly Rudenko, a 48-year-old driver in Kyiv. \u201cPrices are rising, corruption has not gone away and we have begun to live even poorer.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe miracle did not happen. The situation is only getting worse,\u201d said Tatyana Shmeleva, a 54-year-old economist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Zelenskyy initially made his name in Ukraine as a comic actor portraying on television a teacher who inadvertently becomes president after railing against corruption. In one analyst\u2019s view, he erred as president by taking a similar path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cZelenskyy made a mistake by starting a confrontation with all the oligarchs of Ukraine at once, who control the main political forces, parties, TV channels. This is a very dangerous, very risky game,\u201d said Vladimir Fesenko, head of the Penta analytical center.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Among the oligarchs Fesenko mentioned are Petro Poroshenko, the confectionary tycoon who preceded Zelenskyy as president and now faces treason charges for allegedly facilitating coal sales that financed the eastern rebels; industrialist Rinat Akhmetov, from Ukraine\u2019s east who controls an opposition faction; and Viktor Medvedchuk, the country\u2019s most prominent pro-Russia politician, whose three TV stations have been blocked for allegedly spreading misinformation and who is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the godfather of one of his daughters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
These oligarchs are not unified \u2014 Medvedchuk and Akhmetov are affiliated with rival opposition factions, while Poroshenko\u2019s presidency was marked by strong antipathy toward Russia. But many observers believe Moscow is trying to exploit any opposition to Zelenskyy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThere are no open pro-Russia forces that are able to legally come to power in elections, which means that the Kremlin must look for hidden allies and conduct secret negotiations with several Ukrainian players at once,\u201d Fesenko said. Russia \u201cis pulling economic, energy, political strings, trying to find \u2018flexible\u2019 political forces.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhat does Putin want? His task is very simple \u2014 it is the destabilization of our state. Can he do it militarily? No, he cannot. To do this, he needs internal destabilization,\u201d Ukrainian Security Council head Oleksiy Danilov said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, analyst Volodymyr Sidenko of the Razumkov Center said \u201cthe scenario of collusion between one of the Ukrainian oligarchs and the Kremlin looks unlikely, since there are no conditions for the formation of stable Russian-Ukrainian business chains.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Ukraine\u2019s next parliamentary election will be held in 2023 and all opinion polls show that the ruling pro-presidential Servant of the People party may lose control of parliament. This would complicate Zelenskyy\u2019s ambitions for another term in 2024, so the political landscape could change drastically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the current tensions may even work in his favor in the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThreats from Russia can paradoxically help Zelenskyy \u2014 he is just trying to unite everyone who stands for an independent and European Ukraine,\u201d said Grigory Khoronenko, a programmer in Kyiv. \u201cThere may not be a war but Zelenskyy has already received military and financial assistance from the West, which will go to support morale.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The British intelligence report that claimed Russia could seek to install politician Yevheniy Murayev as Ukraine\u2019s president gave no scenario about how that plan might work. Murayev once was part of Medvedchuk\u2019s opposition party, but split and formed a party of his own that has no seats in parliament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.K. report sparked wide speculation about Russia\u2019s possible nefarious intent, but many Ukrainians brushed it off as far-fetched.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI perceive the British version about Murayev with skepticism; this may be something Russia deliberately threw in … to create a fake smokescreen and hide the real players that the Kremlin is oriented toward,\u201d Fesenko said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On Friday, Ukraine\u2019s national security council imposed a five-year sanction against a television channel owned by Murayev.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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