WASHINGTON (AP) \u2014 As the prospect of a red wave grows, a series of Republican missteps including recruiting stumbles, weak fundraising and intense infighting is threatening the GOP\u2019s path to the Senate majority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Arizona\u2019s Republican Gov. Doug Ducey dealt his party its latest setback late last week by announcing he\u00a0would not challenge\u00a0Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly this fall. His decision, which leaves no obvious front-runner in a crowded Republican primary, disappointed Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell and his allies who had spent months privately encouraging Ducey to run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the GOP\u2019s shortcomings extend well beyond Arizona.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Republican candidates in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada are struggling to keep pace with Democratic fundraising. Recruiting failures have dashed GOP hopes in reach states like Maryland and threaten a prime pickup opportunity in New Hampshire. And a recent plan that would raise taxes on low-income Americans and seniors, released by the Republican Senate midterm chief, Florida Sen. Rick Scott, is putting GOP candidates in a difficult position across states like Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The challenges amount to an early warning sign for Republicans less than two months before the opening Senate primaries of\u00a0the 2022 election season. With Democrats confronting historic headwinds and the weight of\u00a0an unpopular president, a Republican Senate majority is easily within reach. But, sensing discord within the GOP, Democrats are suddenly optimistic they may have a path to hold \u2014 or even expand \u2014 their majority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rep. Val Demings, the leading Democrat in\u00a0the race to unseat Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, acknowledged that her party has struggled to highlight its accomplishments \u2014 including sweeping\u00a0coronavirus pandemic relief\u00a0and a massive\u00a0infrastructure package\u00a0\u2014 in the face of President Joe Biden\u2019s political woes. But she seized on Scott\u2019s plan as a clear contrast for how Democrats and Republicans would govern differently.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThis plan is toxic. It would hurt working families. It would hurt seniors. And Rubio\u2019s going to own it,\u201d Demings said in an interview.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rubio\u2019s campaign declined to say specifically whether he supported Scott\u2019s plan when asked, issuing a statement instead that called Demings \u201ca do-nothing member of Congress who has never even passed a real law, much less a tax cut.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With eight months until Election Day, the political landscape remains in flux. The health of\u00a0the economy,\u00a0a Supreme Court decision on abortion\u00a0and\u00a0the war in Eastern Europe\u00a0remain major variables. But history suggests Democrats would be lucky to preserve their fragile Senate majority in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a 50-50 Senate, Democrats would lose control of Congress\u2019 upper chamber if they lose a seat. And without the majority, they lose any hope of enacting Biden\u2019s plans to bolster child care, education, family leave and environmental protection while protecting\u00a0voting rights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The GOP\u2019s best pickup opportunities rest in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, according to Steven Law, a McConnell ally who leads the most powerful Republican-aligned Senate super PAC. He said he\u2019s increasingly optimistic about the state viewed as the Democrats\u2019 best pickup opportunity, Pennsylvania, and sees competitive races in Republican-held states like North Carolina, Florida and Missouri trending in the right direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Given historic trends against the party that occupies the White House, Law predicted that a state like Colorado or Washington state could become more competitive than expected this fall as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe fundamentals of this election cycle are still very, very good,\u201d Law said. \u201cI don\u2019t think recent challenges or setbacks or issues are going to define it at all. There are going to be bumps in the road. But at the end of the day, this election is going to be about the historic unpopularity of Joe Biden and his agenda, which virtually all Democrats have blindly supported.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A February AP-NORC poll found that more people disapproved than approved of how Biden is handling his job, 55% to 44%, while just 29% of Americans thought the nation was on the right track.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Democratic strategists acknowledge their party\u2019s uphill odds in the months ahead. But on paper, at least, the current Senate landscape gives them an inherent advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cFrankly, Democrats just need to hold seats in states Biden won,\u201d said Jessica Floyd, the president of the pro-Democratic super PAC American Bridge, which launched a $5 million paid advertising campaign late last week across four states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. \u201cThe map matters.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While Biden did win all four of American Bridge\u2019s target states, the Democratic president won three of them by 1 percentage point or less and the other by just 2 percentage points. Those margins should give Democrats little comfort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Republican Glenn Youngkin\u00a0narrowly defeated\u00a0former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe in Virginia\u2019s high-profile governor\u2019s race last fall, even though Biden had carried the state by 10 percentage points a year earlier. Longer-term historical trends are no less daunting for Democrats: Over the last 40 years, the party that holds the White House has won Senate seats in only two midterm elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, escalating tensions among Republican leaders at the highest levels threatens to undercut the party\u2019s ambitions. McConnell and former President Donald Trump have long sparred over Republican messaging and\u00a0candidate endorsements. In some states, Trump favors far-right nominees who struggle in statewide general elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But for now, a simmering feud between McConnell and Scott has taken center stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Scott, the leader of the GOP\u2019s Senate midterm efforts, released an 11-point plan late last month that would impose a modest tax increase for many of the lowest paid Americans, while opening the door for cutting Social Security and Medicare. The Senate Democrats\u2019 political arm released a radio ad within 24 hours declaring, \u201cIf Senate Republicans win, we pay the price.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Staffers from Scott\u2019s Senate committee moved into triage mode almost immediately, reaching out to Republican campaigns across the country to gauge their frustration while offering messaging help, according to senior Republican strategists with direct knowledge of the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The strategists, who requested anonymity to discuss private deliberations, said many Senate Republicans had been willing to ignore what they viewed as Scott\u2019s presidential ambitions over the last year. But that changed when the Florida senator released his latest proposal, which they considered an \u201cunforced error\u201d that triggered a wave of anger across the party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
McConnell could not stay silent as he faced reporters last week on Capitol Hill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Senate Republican leader forcefully rebuked Scott\u2019s plan during the Republican leadership\u2019s weekly news conference, which Scott was part of.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cLet me tell you what would not be a part of our agenda,\u201d McConnell said moments after Scott stepped away from the event. \u201cWe will not have as part of our agenda a bill that raises taxes on half of the American people and sunsets Social Security and Medicare within five years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Scott refused to respond on Sunday when asked about McConnell\u2019s comments during an appearance on Fox News Channel\u2019s \u201cSunday Morning Futures,\u201d offering instead a defiant defense of his broader plan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt\u2019s my ideas,\u201d Scott said. \u201cThere\u2019s going to be other ideas.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Amid such Republican infighting, Democrats are pressing their cash advantage on the ground in key states, even as GOP campaign committees in Washington report record fundraising hauls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Nevada, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, one of the nation\u2019s most endangered Democrats, reported $10.5 million cash on hand at the end of last year, compared to Republican former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt\u2019s $1.7 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Georgia Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock finished the year with $22.9 million in the bank, while likely Republican challenger Herschel Walker, the former football star who has been\u00a0endorsed by Trump, reported $5.4 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
And Arizona Democrat Kelly, a former astronaut who won a 2020 special election to serve out the final two years of the late Sen. John McCain\u2019s term, reported $18.6 million in the bank. Arizona\u2019s Republican state Attorney General Mark Brnovich, the best-known Republican in a crowded primary field, reported less than $800,000 in the bank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Warnock and Kelly pressed their financial advantages by launching an initial round of television ads in recent weeks as Republican candidates in both states focus on fighting each other. It\u2019s much the same in New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan placed $13 million in initial TV and radio advertising reservations for the fall, much of it in the expensive Boston media market, while three Republicans will be locked in a primary through mid-September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Back in Washington, Scott seemed to be in good spirits as he described Biden and his agenda as \u201cwildly unpopular.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe Democrats are simply failing American families and the voters are ready to give them a butt kicking this November,\u201d Scott told AP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, in Florida, Demings offered a window into the Democrats\u2019 challenge by refusing to say whether she wanted Biden to campaign in the state on her behalf when asked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI grew up poor, Black and female in the South,\u201d Demings told The Associated Press. \u201cI\u2019ve never depended on someone else to do the work for me or someone to give me a pass or come to rescue me.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI\u2019m excited about where we are in this race,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
___<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Peoples reported from New York. Associated Press writer Jonathan J. Cooper in Phoenix contributed to this report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This story has been corrected to show that three, not two Republicans are in New Hampshire primary.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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