WASHINGTON (AP) \u2014 Last Fourth of July,\u00a0President Joe Biden\u00a0gathered hundreds of people outside the White House for an event that would have been unthinkable for many Americans the previous year. With the coronavirus in retreat, they ate hamburgers and watched fireworks over the National Mall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Although the pandemic wasn\u2019t over yet,\u00a0Biden said, \u201cwe\u2019re closer than ever to declaring our independence from a deadly virus.\u201d Across the country, indoor masking requirements were falling as the number of infections and deaths plummeted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Within weeks, even some of the president\u2019s allies privately admitted that the speech had been premature. Soon the administration would learn that the delta variant could be transmitted by people who had already been vaccinated. Masks went back on, then came polarizing vaccination mandates. The even-more-contagious omicron variant would arrive months later, infecting millions and causing chaos during the holiday season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWe were hoping to be free of the virus, and the virus had a lot more in store for us,\u201d said Joshua Sharfstein, vice dean of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. The number of people in the United States who died from COVID-19 nearly doubled, from 605,000\u00a0to more than 1 million, over the past year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That sunny speech one year ago marked a crossroads for Biden\u2019s presidency. The pandemic appeared to be waning, the economy was booming, inflation wasn\u2019t rising as quickly as today and public approval of his job performance was solid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As Biden approaches his second Fourth of July in the White House, his standing couldn\u2019t be more different. A series of miscalculations and unforeseen challenges have Biden struggling for footing as he faces a potentially damaging verdict from voters in the upcoming midterm elections. Even problems that weren\u2019t Biden\u2019s fault have been fuel for Republican efforts to retake control of Congress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The pandemic\u2019s resurgence was swiftly followed last summer by the debacle of the\u00a0U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, when the\u00a0Taliban seized control of the country\u00a0faster than the administration expected as the U.S.-backed regime collapsed. Then, negotiations over Biden\u2019s broader domestic agenda stalled,\u00a0only to collapse altogether in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Russian invasion of Ukraine\u00a0in late February caused\u00a0a worldwide spike in gas prices, exacerbating inflation that reached a\u00a040-year high. Another blow came last month, when the Supreme Court\u00a0overturned the constitutional right to abortion\u00a0under Roe v. Wade and curtailed the Environmental Protection Agency\u2019s ability to\u00a0regulate greenhouse gas emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Suddenly a reactive president, Biden has been left trying to reclaim the initiative at every step, often with mixed results. The coronavirus is less of a threat than before and infections are far less likely to lead to death, but\u00a0Congress is refusing to supply more money\u00a0to deal with the pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
He\u00a0signed new gun restrictions into law\u00a0after massacres in New York and Texas, and he\u2019s leading\u00a0a reinvestment in European security\u00a0as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth month. But he has limited tools at his disposal to deal with other challenges, such as\u00a0rising costs\u00a0and\u00a0eroding access to abortion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cPeople are grouchy,\u201d said Lindsay Chervinsky, a presidential historian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The latest poll\u00a0from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that his approval rating remains at 39%, the lowest since taking office and a steep slide from 59%\u00a0one year ago.\u00a0Only 14% of Americans believe the country is headed in the right direction, down from 44%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Douglas Brinkley, another historian, said Biden suffered from a case of presidential hubris after a largely successful run in his first five months in office, which included an overseas trip to meet with allies excited about welcoming a friendly face back to the international scene. He compared Biden\u2019s Fourth of July speech last year to President George W. Bush\u2019s infamous\u00a0\u201cMission Accomplished\u201d\u00a0moment during the second Iraq War.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cHe was trying to deliver good news but it didn\u2019t pan out for him,\u201d Brinkley said. \u201cSuddenly, Biden lost a lot of goodwill.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
White House officials reject the comparison, noting that Biden warned about the \u201cpowerful\u201d delta variant in his 2021 speech. Chris Meagher, a spokesman, said deaths from the virus are at a record low now, reducing disruptions in workplaces and classrooms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cFighting inflation and lowering prices is the president\u2019s number one economic priority, and he\u2019s laser focused on doing everything he can to make sure the economy is working for the American people,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd we\u2019re in a strong position to transition from our historic jobs recovery to stable and steady growth. Because of the work we\u2019ve done to bring the pandemic under control, COVID is not the disruptive factor it has been for so long.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The promise to competently address the COVID-19 pandemic is what helped put Biden in the Oval Office and send President Donald Trump to defeat. From the start of Biden\u2019s tenure, his public pronouncements were sober and cautious, wary of following his predecessor in predictions that went unfulfilled. The nation\u2019s vaccination program found its stride under Biden, and by April 19, 2021, all adults were eligible to be vaccinated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, was an adviser to Biden\u2019s transition team. But as the Fourth of July approached last year, he was worried and felt that the administration wasn\u2019t heeding his warnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cEveryone was in this position of wanting to believe it was over with, and not fully understanding or appreciating the potential of the variants,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even now, a full year later, Osterholm is reluctant to say what the future holds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI want answers too,\u201d he said. \u201cBut I don\u2019t know what the variants are going to bring us. I don\u2019t know what human immunity is going to look like.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Biden said the virus \u201chas not been vanquished\u201d in his Fourth of July speech, and he held another event two days later to talk about the delta variant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt seems to me that it should cause everybody to think twice,\u201d he said as he appealed to people who had not yet been vaccinated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Leana Wen, a public health professor at George Washington University, said there\u2019s more reason to be optimistic this year than last. Immunity from vaccines or previous infections is much more widespread, and antiviral treatments are effective at preventing hospitalization and death in vulnerable patients.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt was premature to declare independence from COVID-19 last year,\u201d she said. \u201cBut this year the country is in a totally different place, and in a much better place.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Wen said Biden might be wary, given how things went before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe administration is hesitant to make those proclamations now, when actually this is the time to do so,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Biden\u2019s early strategy of underpromising and overdelivering on COVID-19 was part of a concerted strategy to rebuild the public\u2019s trust in government. The resurgence of the virus eroded some of that trust and diminished confidence in Biden\u2019s job performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rebuilding that has proved difficult, especially as the country faces challenges, some, frustratingly for Biden,\u00a0outside of his control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWe expect the president to be all powerful and be able to fix every problem,\u201d said Chervinsky, the presidential historian. \u201cIt\u2019s a completely unrealistic expectation and, frankly, a dangerous one.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
President Bill Clinton stumbled through his first two years in office, then faced a wave of Republican victories in his first midterm elections. But he later became the first Democratic president to be reelected since Franklin Delano Roosevelt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Chervinsky cautioned that today\u2019s political polarization could make such a rebound more difficult for Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A key question, she said: \u201cIs our partisan system so inflexible that it won\u2019t allow for him to go back?\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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