In overturning a half-century of nationwide legal protection for abortion,\u00a0the U.S. Supreme Court ruled\u00a0that Roe v. Wade had been wrongly decided and that it was time to \u201creturn the issue of abortion to the people\u2019s elected representatives\u201d in the states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Whether those elected officials are truly representative of the people is a matter of debate, thanks to another high court decision that has enabled control of state legislatures to be skewed to the right or left.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In June 2019, three years before its momentous abortion ruling, the Supreme Court decided that it has no role in restraining partisan gerrymandering, in which Republicans or Democrats manipulate the boundaries of voting districts to give their candidates an edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The result is that many legislatures are more heavily partisan than the state\u2019s population as a whole. Gerrymandering again flourished as politicians used the 2020 census data to redraw districts that could benefit their party both for this year\u2019s elections and the next decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In some swing states with Republican-led legislatures, such as Michigan and Wisconsin, \u201carguably gerrymandering really is the primary reason that abortion is likely to be illegal,\u201d said Chris Warshaw, a political scientist at George Washington University who analyzes redistricting data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, \u201cin states where Democrats have gerrymandered, it\u2019s going to help probably make abortion laws more liberal than people would like,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A majority of Americans support abortion access in general, though many say there should be some restrictions,\u00a0according to public opinion polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
States have sometimes been viewed as laboratories for democracy \u2014 institutions most closely connected to the people where public policies are tested, take root and potentially spread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Writing for the Supreme Court\u2019s majority in its\u00a0June 24 abortion decision, Justice Samuel Alito noted that 30 states had prohibited abortion when the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling \u201cshort-circuited the democratic process,\u201d usurped lawmakers and imposed abortion rights nationwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cOur decision returns the issue of abortion to those legislative bodies, and it allows women on both sides of the abortion issue to seek to affect the legislative process by influencing public opinion, lobbying legislators, voting, and running for office,\u201d Alito wrote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Abortion already is an issue\u00a0in Wisconsin\u2019s gubernatorial and legislative elections.\u00a0A recent Wisconsin poll\u00a0showed a majority supported legal abortion in most or all cases. But a fight is brewing over an 1849 state law \u2014 which had been unenforceable until Roe v. Wade was overruled \u2014 that bans abortion except to save the life of the woman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is backing a court challenge to overturn the law, enacted just a year after Wisconsin gained statehood. He also called a special legislative session in June to repeal it. But\u00a0the Republican-led Assembly and Senate adjourned in a matter of seconds\u00a0without taking action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Wisconsin\u2019s legislative chambers had one of the nation\u2019s strongest Republican advantages during the past decade and are projected to continue to do so under new districts in place for the 2022 elections, according to an analysis by PlanScore, a nonprofit that uses election data to rate the partisan tilt of legislative districts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cDemocracy is distorted in Wisconsin because of these maps,\u201d Assembly Minority Leader Greta Neubauer said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2018, Democrats won every major statewide office, including governor and attorney general, races where gerrymandering isn\u2019t in play. But they have not been able to overcome heavily gerrymandered state legislative districts since Republicans won control of the statehouse during the midterm elections in 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIf we had a truly democratic system in Wisconsin, we would be in a different situation,\u201d she said. \u201cWe would be overturning this criminal abortion ban right now\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Republican state Rep. Donna Rozar, a former cardiac nurse who backs abortion restrictions, said gerrymandering shouldn\u2019t stop political parties from running good candidates to represent their districts. She expects a robust abortion debate during the campaign to carry into the 2023 legislative session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThis is an issue that is so critical to come back to the states, because each state then can elect people that will represent their values.\u201d Rozar said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The 2010 midterms, two years after former President Barack Obama was elected, were a pivot point for control of statehouses across the country. Coming into that election, Democrats fully controlled 27 state legislatures and Republicans 14, with the rest split. But sweeping GOP victories put the party in charge of redistricting in many states. By 2015, after two elections under the new maps, Republicans fully controlled 30 legislatures and Democrats just 11.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That Republican legislative advantage largely persisted through the 2020 elections, including in states that otherwise are narrowly divided between Democrats and Republicans, such as Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In New Mexico, it\u2019s Republicans who contend the Democratic-led Legislature has pushed beyond the will of many voters on abortion policies. The New Mexico House and Senate districts had a sizable pro-Democratic edge during the past decade that got even more pronounced after districts were redrawn based on the 2020 census, according to the PlanScore data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Democratic\u00a0Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham signed legislation\u00a0last year repealing a dormant 1969 law that banned most abortions. After Roe v. Wade was overruled, she signed an executive order\u00a0making New Mexico a safe harbor\u00a0for people seeking abortions. Unlike most states, New Mexico has no restrictions on late-term abortions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cI don\u2019t think that the majority of New Mexicans support New Mexico\u2019s abortion policy at this time,\u201d Republican state Sen. Gay Kernan said. \u201cNew Mexico is the late-term abortion capital of the United States, basically.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Republican nominee for governor, Mark Ronchetti, has proposed to ban abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy with exceptions for rape, incest and when a woman\u2019s life is at risk. But the legislative proposal has been described as dead on arrival by Democratic state Senate Whip Linda Lopez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Michigan could provide one of the biggest tests of representative government in the nation\u2019s new abortion battle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Republicans drew Michigan legislative districts after the 2010 census and created such a sizable advantage for their party that it may have helped the GOP maintain control of the closely divided House,\u00a0according to an Associated Press analysis. As in Wisconsin, Democrats in Michigan won the governor\u2019s race and every other major statewide office in 2018 but could not overcome legislative districts tilted toward Republicans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The dynamics have changed for this year\u2019s elections. The GOP\u2019s edge was cut in half under new legislative districts drawn by a voter-approved citizens\u2019 redistricting commission, according to the PlanScore data. That could improve Democrats\u2019 chances of winning a chamber and influencing abortion policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Michigan\u2019s Republican gubernatorial challengers generally support a 1931 state law \u2014 temporarily placed on hold by a judge \u2014 that bans abortions unless a woman\u2019s health is at risk. Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is running for reelection, wants to repeal that law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Republican state Rep. Steve Carra said lawmakers are looking to replace it with \u201csomething that would be enforceable in the 21st century.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt\u2019s more important to protect life than it is a woman\u2019s right to choose to take that life,\u201d said Carra, who leads a coalition of 321 lawmakers from 35 states that had urged the Supreme Court to return abortion policy to the states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Unsure about their legislative prospects, abortion rights advocates are gathering signatures for a November ballot initiative that would create a state constitutional right to abortion, allowing its regulation only \u201cafter fetal viability.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIt\u2019s the best shot that we have at securing abortion access,\u201d Democratic state Rep. Laurie Pohutsky said. \u201cI think if this is put in voters\u2019 hands, they will want to see this ballot measure succeed.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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