The Biden administration is mulling over America\u2019s role in\u00a0Syria\u2019s ongoing conflict\u00a0as the U.S. tries to break away from Middle East wars, but Vladimir Putin\u2019s top diplomat already has been busy on the ground, trying to win support for a Syria approach that could establish Russia as a broker of security and power in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The new U.S. administration has yet to say how it plans to handle Syria, which is now fragmented among a half-dozen militaries \u2014 including U.S. troops \u2014 owing to a war that has killed and has displaced millions. The conflict includes al-Qaida affiliates, Islamic State forces and other jihadist groups eager to use Syria as a base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Russia and Iran have intervened to prevent the collapse of\u00a0Syrian President Bashar Assad, who has wielded\u00a0chemical attacks, barrel bombs and starvation to crush what had started out as a peaceful uprising. The conflict just entered its 11th year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dealing with Syria\u2019s war will test the Biden administration\u2019s determination to focus on Asia and not the Middle East. If the United States diminishes its presence, Russia and other hostile U.S. rivals are poised to step in and boost their regional stature and resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hence\u00a0Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov\u2019s\u00a0Middle East tour this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Lavrov stood by as the foreign minister of a Gulf state generally friendly to Washington, the United Arab Emirates, delivered a message in line with Moscow\u2019s position: U.S. sanctions on Syria\u2019s Russia-supported regime were blocking international efforts to rebuild Syria. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan said it is time to welcome Syria back into the fold of Arab nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In other words, Russia\u2019s message is \u201cthe Syria war is over, Assad has won, Assad will be in power as long as he is breathing oxygen,\u201d said Frederic Hof, who served as a U.S. Syria adviser and envoy in the Obama administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hof said there was an unstated part of the message: Russia plans to be on hand as \u201cSyria is built from the ashes,\u201d benefiting from any international reconstruction resources coming in, and positioning itself as the broker to manage the security threats that Syria poses to the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hof and James F. Jeffrey, a career diplomat under Republican and Democratic administrations who served as President Donald Trump\u2019s Syria envoy, argue for the United States to remain a significant presence in the country, citing Russia\u2019s ambitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIf this is the security future of the Middle East, we\u2019re all in trouble,\u201d Jeffrey warns. \u201cThat\u2019s what Putin and Lavrov are pushing.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Biden administration is reviewing whether it should consider Syria as one of America\u2019s most important national security problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s shown no sign yet of doing so. Notably, where President Joe Biden has spelled out some other Middle East problems as priorities \u2014 including Yemen\u2019s war and Iran\u2019s nuclear program, for which Biden appointed envoys \u2014 he and his officials have said and done little publicly on Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In Congress, Syria is at the heart of a congressional debate over whether to reduce or end the authorities given to presidents to conduct military strikes in the aftermath of the 9\/11 attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It was the Syrian war that sparked that debate, when President Barack Obama first considered military strikes there, said Rep. Joaquin Castro, a Texas Democrat and member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. \u201cCongress has sidelined itself in some of the most important decisions that a country can take.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One of Biden\u2019s few public mentions of Syria since taking office came last week, when he listed it among international problems that the U.N. Security Council should do more on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Marking the 10th anniversary of the start of the Syrian conflict last week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a statement with European counterparts emphasized the need for humanitarian aid for Syrian civilians and accountability for the Assad regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
U.S. troops are helping protect an opposition enclave in northeast Syria, in an area that includes oil and natural gas. During Biden\u2019s campaign last year, Blinken framed the military role as a \u201cpoint of leverage\u201d in negotiations over the international handling of Syria, rather than an ongoing force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Spokespeople with the National Security Council and State Department declined to answer specific questions on Biden\u2019s Syria policy, including whether the administration sees the Syria conflict as a major national security threat or plans to appoint an envoy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Biden follows Obama and Trump in seeking to minimize the United States\u2019 military role in the Middle East and shift the focus of U.S. foreign policy to Asia, where China has been increasingly aggressive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But the Middle East\u2019s conflicts and the United States\u2019 own strategic schemes have a way of pulling Americans back. Biden last month became the sixth consecutive U.S. president to bomb a Middle East target, hitting an Iranian-allied militia in Syria that had attacked American and allied personnel in neighboring Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Some current and former U.S. diplomats for the Middle East have argued Syria is not a top security threat for the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Robert S. Ford, an Obama administration ambassador to Syria with years of diplomatic experience in the region, concluded in a Foreign Affairs article last year that Washington should move toward pulling its troops out of northeast Syria, arrange for Russia and others to deal with jihadist fighters, and put the United States\u2019 money toward helping the war\u2019s refugees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Hof and Jeffrey, two others who dealt with Syria for past administrations, argue against withdrawal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIf I were an ISIS leader now trying desperately to organize an insurgency to come back\u201d in Syria, \u201cI would pray that that advice be taken,\u201d Hof said. For the Islamic State group, \u201cif you can have as your enemies the (Syrian) regime, the Iranians and the Russians, it doesn\u2019t get any better than that.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A test of Biden administration intentions is looming, as Russia seeks to use its U.N. Security Council position to shut down a humanitarian aid route into part of Syria not under control of the Russia-supported Syrian government, notes Mona Yacoubian, senior Syria adviser for the U.S. Institute for Peace think tank.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Maintaining or bolstering the U.S. footprint in Syria will be important, Yacoubian said \u2014 not just as leverage in political negotiations, but also to shape the rules of the game for Russia\u2019s presence in the Middle East. And other immediate goals for the international community remain: making life \u201cmore manageable and less miserable for Syrians,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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