President Joe Biden\u2019s\u00a0abrupt decision to bow out\u00a0of the presidential race and endorse\u00a0Vice President Kamala Harris\u00a0to be the Democratic candidate against former President Donald Trump caused a political earthquake on Sunday. It also changes the contours of a presidential race \u2014 which most voters said they did not want to see \u2014 that has seemed rigidly set for more than a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here are some takeaways from the historic day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since Biden\u2019s disastrous debate in June, the Democratic party has been in disarray. Drip by drip, high-level party officials reversed course and started to send signals that the president needed to step aside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Before Sunday, seeing Biden step aside did not necessarily mean making room for Harris. The vice president\u2019s approval ratings were as grim as Biden\u2019s, and there\u2019s widespread skepticism on the left about her electability after her disappointing performance in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But on Sunday, Democrats started lining up behind Harris. Dozens of members of Congress and senators endorsed her. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro \u2014 himself a dream nominee for many Democrats who have hoped Biden would step aside \u2014 also came out in favor of Harris, as did California Gov. Gavin Newsom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Two big names \u2014 former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and former President Barack Obama \u2014 notably withheld endorsements. But with less than two months before early voting begins in the presidential election, Democrats may be deciding they don\u2019t have time for further turmoil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s also a reminder of the stark difference between the Democratic and Republican parties. Trump took over the Republican Party on the strength of his personality and loyal following of party voters. Harris has been assiduously working the phones to key Democratic members of Congress to assemble a durable coalition. Democrats are still trying to balance multiple power centers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The GOP only has one power center now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Normally, a president\u2019s reelection campaign is a referendum on the incumbent. For months, Biden tried to make it about Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
When pushed in interviews about his own poor debate performance, Biden tried to counter it by highlighting Donald Trump\u2019s deceptions. He made the perceived threat of another Trump presidency his big pitch to donors, saying that the Republican would end U.S. democracy. But after the debate, the framing quickly turned to Biden, and whether he had the capacity to serve another four years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now Democrats hope Harris, at 59, can cast a spotlight on Trump, who is just three years younger than Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The GOP made no secret that it preferred to run against Biden, but it\u2019s pivoting to attack Harris in similar ways. Republicans are already criticizing Harris for defending Biden\u2019s ability to do his job over the past several years. They\u2019re tying her to the least popular aspects of Biden\u2019s presidency, like border policy and immigration. During last week\u2019s GOP convention, speaker after speaker called Harris the \u201cborder czar\u201d \u2014 which has never been her title, but was shorthand for how Biden tasked her with handling immigration early in his term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The one constant since Trump announced in November of 2022 has been voters pleading, begging for a different matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The desire is clear in both polls and conversations with regular voters. In late 2023, an AP-NORC poll found that 58% would be unhappy with Trump as the GOP nominee and 56% with Biden. Democrats were more likely to be dissatisfied with Biden then Republicans with Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The problem for the replace-Biden movement is no single candidate captured the imagination of Democratic voters. Running essentially unopposed, Biden cleaned up in the Democratic primary. It wasn\u2019t until the June 27 debate that Democratic powerbrokers began to listen to voters\u2019 unease.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now there\u2019s a different election. But the question remains \u2014 will voters be happy about a fresher face? Or will they treat Harris like they did Biden, either because they see her as tightly connected to him or because their unhappiness wasn\u2019t just about the re-run of the 2020 race, but other factors in American life?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The main contours of the presidential race were set with Trump\u2019s announcement in November of 2022. Now, if Democrats choose Harris, those battle lines come into much sharper focus. Harris, as the nation\u2019s first Black woman vice president, and first of South Asian descent, has the potential to generate an overperformance among women, particularly women of color, while Trump will try to do the same among white men.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But Trump isn\u2019t putting all his eggs in a single demographic basket. After performing better than expected with Latinos in 2020 his campaign has been trying to boost his numbers with that ethnicity even more and also targeting Black voters. Meanwhile, Biden\u2019s hold on older white voters \u2014 who are more likely to cast ballots \u2014 kept him competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Will Harris be able to blunt Trump\u2019s potential gains among more diverse parts of the electorate? Will she be able to replicate her boss\u2019 strength in Rust Belt states where white voters are disproportionately powerful? Can she put in play states like Georgia and North Carolina that have a higher share of Black voters?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Any changes between Harris\u2019 coalition and Biden\u2019s are likely to be small, but this election is likely to be close and turn on tiny shifts in the electorate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Harris has long been an electoral mystery. She has the resume of a top-of-the-line electoral juggernaut \u2014 female career prosecutor of racially mixed descent, quick and charismatic. But she\u2019s underperformed in the races she ran in California. Though she won her statewide contests, she usually didn\u2019t get as many votes as other Democrats running statewide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The nadir came in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. Harris ended up dropping out before voting began to preserve her viability after doing so poorly in the initial stretch of the race.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Harris\u2019 checkered electoral history may have been a factor on Democratic disquiet about Biden, because they didn\u2019t trust his heir apparent to beat Trump. They now may have no choice but to believe in her and have been encouraged by her sharper, clearer attacks on the Republican nominee recently.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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