WASHINGTON (AP) \u2014 U.S. population growth has slowed to the lowest rate since the Great Depression, the Census Bureau said Monday, as Americans continued their march to the South and West and one-time engines of growth, New York and California, lost political influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Altogether, the U.S. population rose to 331,449,281 last year, the Census Bureau said, a 7.4% increase over the previous decade that was the second-slowest ever. Experts say that paltry pace reflects the combination of an aging population, slowing immigration and the scars of the Great Recession more than a decade ago, which led many young adults to delay marriage and families.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The new allocation of congressional seats comes in the first release of data from last year\u2019s headcount. The numbers generally chart familiar American migration patterns: Texas and Florida, two Republican Sunbelt giants, added enough population to gain congressional seats as chillier climes like New York and Ohio saw slow growth and lost political muscle. The report also confirms one historic marker: For the first time in 170 years of statehood,\u00a0California is losing a congressional seat<\/a>, a result of slowed migration to the nation\u2019s most populous state, which was once a symbol of the country\u2019s expansive frontier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The state population figures, known as the apportionment count, determine distribution of $1.5 trillion in federal spending each year. They also mark the official beginning of once-a-decade redistricting battles. The numbers released Monday, along with more detailed data expected later this year, will be used by state legislatures or independent commissions to redraw political maps to account for shifts in population<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It\u2019s been a bumpy road getting this far. The 2020 census faced a once-in-a-century coronavirus pandemic, wildfires, hurricanes, allegations of political interference with the Trump administration\u2019s failed effort to add a citizenship question, fluctuating deadlines and lawsuits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Texas was the biggest winner \u2014 the second-most populous state added two congressional seats, while Florida and North Carolina each gained one. Colorado, Montana and Oregon all added residents and gained a seat each. States losing seats included Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The new numbers contain some surprises. Though Texas and Florida grew, the final census count had them each gaining one fewer seat than expected. Arizona, another fast-growing state that demographers considered a sure bet to pick up a new seat, failed to get one. All three states have large Latino populations that represent about half their growth, and this could be an early sign that Hispanics shied away from the Trump administration\u2019s count.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Still, Thomas Saenz, president of the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, said he wasn\u2019t ready to \u201csound the alarm\u201d over the underperformance of states with large Hispanic populations. He noted that he believes Hispanic growth helped states like Colorado and Oregon each gain seats and prevented states like New York and Illinois from losing more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Congressional reapportionment is a zero sum game, with states divvying up the 435 House seats based on population advantages that can be strikingly small. If New York had counted 89 more residents, the state would have kept its seat and Minnesota would have lost one, officials said. Minnesota, which had the nation\u2019s highest self-response rate, also secured the last House seat in 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The reshuffling of the congressional map moved seats from blue states to red ones, giving Republicans a clear, immediate advantage. The party will have complete control of drawing the congressional maps in Texas, Florida and North Carolina \u2014 states that are adding four seats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In contrast, though Democrats control the process in Oregon, Democratic lawmakers there have agreed to give Republicans an equal say in redistricting in exchange for a commitment to stop blocking bills. In Democratic Colorado, a nonpartisan commission will draw the lines, meaning the party won\u2019t have total control in a single expanding state\u2019s redistricting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The overall numbers confirm what demographers have long warned \u2014 that the country\u2019s growth is stalling. Many had expected growth to come in even below the 1930s levels given the long hangover of the Great Recession and the drying up of immigration, which came to a virtual halt during last year\u2019s pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., warned that even a recovering economy may not change the trend with the population aging rapidly and immigration contentious. \u201cUnlike the Great Depression, it\u2019s part of a process where we\u2019re likely to keep having slow growth,\u201d Frey said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, Americans continue to move to GOP-run states. For now, that shift provides the Republicans with the opportunity to shape new congressional districts to maximize the influence of their voters and have a major advantage in upcoming elections \u2014 possibly enough to win back control of the U.S. House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But in the long term, it\u2019s not clear the migration is good news for Republicans. Many of the fastest growing states are increasingly competitive political battlegrounds where the new arrivals \u2014 including many young people<\/a> and people of color \u2014 could at some point give Democrats an edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWhat\u2019s happening is growth in Sunbelt states that are trending Democratic or will soon trend Democratic,\u201d Frey said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That means Republicans may be limited in how many favorable seats they can draw as Democrats move to their territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIt\u2019s going to be harder and harder for the Texas Legislature to gerrymander advantageous congressional districts\u201d for Republicans, said William Fulton, director of the Kinder Institute for Urban Research at Rice University in Houston. \u201cTexas hasn\u2019t flipped blue yet as a state, but the blue population centers are growing really fast.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n