Since the Jan. 20 inauguration of Joe Biden, the US and the rest of the world have been watching closely what would become of the Sino-US relationship. I believe Biden will continue Trump’s hard stance toward China, and not much would be changing in the imminent future.
Working with allies and being tough on China
Biden said in June, 2020, that he was in favor of being tough on China as the country is the US’s main competitor and, in some areas, a major threat. From this statement, it is reasonable to believe that Biden’s attitude toward China will not be far off from Trump’s.
Biden’s inheriting Trump’s ‘tough-on-China’ legacy
Biden will use Trump’s existing ‘tough-on-China’ legacy as a bargaining chip against China. In December, 2020, Biden said he would not immediately cancel or rescind Trump’s trade deals with China, which included a $250 billion tariff on Chinese goods. Biden also said he would further discuss this with the US’s allies. In retrospect, Biden may be the biggest benefactor of Trump’s ‘tough-on-China’ legacy as it is an opportunity to solidify the US’s dominance in the world.
Bipartisan support of Tough-on-China policies
Though the election exposed a serious division within the country and the state of partisan politics, the current hard stance toward China has overwhelming bipartisan support. Biden will not risk going against a policy with bipartisan support when the country is extremely divided.
Systemic division between China and the US
Thucydides’s Trap is a continual hurdle for the US. With China’s recent aggressive territorial and economic expansion in the South China Sea, the US cannot and will not abide. The world’s two largest economies will also be competing aggressively within the realms of technology and the economy, as both countries have a fundamental and systemic drive toward competition.
For example, the US and China will be competing in the development of quantum computing, 5G, and AI. To come out ahead in these sectors, the US may lessen China’s involvement in development. Biden has also been actively criticizing China’s track record on human rights and intellectual property, waging an ideological war. The dispute over Hong Kong and Xinjiang may also increase under Biden’s presidency.
